Special Edition: New Tracks Ahead - Release #8
This edition is coming to you as I await to board my flight. New horizons and a sh*t ton of work to do.
After more than five incredible years at Autotech Ventures, I’m stepping into a new chapter with an operating role. I’ll share more about what’s next soon, but in the meantime… I want to talk about why
AI is rewiring the world
AI isn't just a technology. It's becoming the substrate on which the modern world is built—reshaping infrastructure, decision-making, and how value is created. And most of it’s happening far from the spotlight. Artificial intelligence will create the next layer on which all consumer and business applications will be built. AI’s ability to collect and process data—and generate data lakes waiting to be tapped—will become prevalent in the next 5–10 years. Being able to control and access data generated by real-world objects, and enabling access to that data through multimodal LLMs, will build the next generation of applications that wire the world.
Pattern recognition to generalization - 5% of the story just isn’t enough
VCs spend years studying markets, parsing hype from substance, and sitting in the front row of innovation’s edge. The good ones develop pattern recognition. The great ones get tired of patterns and start building them. The transition from capital allocator to company builder is not just logical—it’s overdue. There’s no better place to build a startup than a startup. Sitting through thousands of pitches don’t teach you how companies are built, it just shows you what the founder is capable of screening externally, which is almost always less than 5% of the story. It’s always very easy to make predictions when you actually don’t generalize on unseen data (building with uncertainty) the real challenge is knowing how to operate when you’re out of distribution. Pattern recognition helps you place bets. Generalization is what lets you build them. I’m not talking about having a crystal ball, I’m talking about getting the Beta’s right. VCs almost never do. Basically, if you’re overparameterized (following the hype at every cycle, you’ll almost always never be wrong, regardless of your returns) - this is to those VCs who’ve invested $50k through an SPV to Uber’s final round and proudly putting it on their website. You’ve all become overparameterized with other investors’ thoughts. This is why it is key to be a contrarian. It’s the only way to make real money. (Most VCs don’t make carried interest returns)
Access to deals have become… easy.
Access used to be everything in venture. Not anymore. Today’s LPs have direct exposure to founders, scout networks, syndicates, and even their own in-house platforms. The mystique of “deal flow” has worn off. If everyone has access, access isn’t the value. Execution is. Post-investment leverage, platform quality, and operational depth—that’s what LPs are starting to ask for. The Cambrian explosion of VCs springing out of every corner is over. We will see a wave of consolidation and 2nd-3rd time fundraise failures that will leave only the first tier of funds out there.
Capital has become a commodity
Capital is cheap, capital is everywhere. Every new fund is “early-stage generalist focused on category-defining teams building at the frontier of X.” We’ve reached the saturation point of the pitch—where money is sold like software. Differentiation lies in what comes after the term sheet. Let’s be honest: the VC job has evolved into selling money with marginally better service.
The GCC Is Leap-Frogging
While the rest of the world is talking about elections, tariffs, taxes and other 20th century items, the GCC is leap frogging from not having a legacy system to having an AI-native system.
While Silicon Valley debates AI ethics over lattes, the Gulf is quietly building. The GCC isn’t just funding AI innovation—it’s deploying it. Sovereign wealth, infrastructure-scale adoption, and an unapologetic ambition to leapfrog legacy systems make it arguably the most strategic place on Earth to build AI-first companies today. I strongly believe Trump will support the creation of an AI powerhouse in GCC to balance China fears.
This isn’t about catch-up. It’s about skipping steps. Whether it’s digital twins, federated learning in healthcare, or autonomous systems in smart cities—the region is betting big, moving fast, and backing builders with both capital and conviction.
All in all, it’s the right time, the right place (and the right team, but we’ll come to that)
AI will rewire our entire reality and hardware is where it touches reality & the next 90 days is going to look something like. So, خلص)
